Program 18 August 2020: [Zoom Webinar] China: The Bubble That Never Pops
- Size: 24(L) x 16(W) cm
- Binding: hardcover, 228 pages
- Language: English
- Author: Thomas Orlik
- Publisher: Oxford University Press, 2020
China's economy, the story goes, is destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, and the factories fated for bankruptcy. And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, and international influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.
In his new book, China: The Bubble That Never Pops, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Economist Tom Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade in Beijing, turns the spotlight on China's fragile fundamentals and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with Communist cadres, shadow bankers and migrant workers, he pieces together a unique perspective on China's past, present and possible futures. From Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening to Donald Trump's trade war, he traces policy steps and missteps that have taken China up the global economic rankings, even as fears of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis grow. Mapping possible scenarios, he games out what will happen, if the bubble that never pops finally does. Perhaps more worrying to China hawks in the U.S., he explores what will happen in a more likely scenario where China continues to rise.